Farmers Insurance Open Betting Recap

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For the fourth tournament in a row, we end up profitable thanks to the head-to-head plays but can’t seem to find an outright winner, even though we are oh so very close. Bankroll management and adequately building a golf card, are critical components that I will touch on more in depth on my next blog. I think rather than cramming it into a recap post; it deserves its separate space of discussion. I will explain how I build a betting card and how bankroll management factors into decisions. Most of these concepts I use for all bets, but the construction of a golf betting card is different than other sports because of the outright/head-to-head options.

Just like Scott Piercy and Kevin Chappell last weekend, Tony Finau and Gary Woodland couldn’t come from slightly off the lead to give us our first outright win of the year. Our Saturday night add decision came down to Justin Rose at 8/1 or Jason Day at 8/1. With wind looming on Sunday, I decided on Justin Rose as the final piece to my betting card, which unfortunately proved to be wrong when Jason Day was instead the one who came off the pace to secure the victory. We have just been a couple of breaks here and there from having a considerable weekend payday.

I think it will be an interesting feature to look back on official picks each week after the tournament is over. What was said pre-tournament in the write-ups vs. what happened?

Farmers Insurance Open (Official Card)

Finau 35/1 Tied for 6th
Cantlay 35/1 Tied for 51st
Woodland 50/1 Tied for 12th
Vegas 60/1 Missed Cut
Uihlein 80/1 Missed Cut
Hadley 100/1 Tied 23rd
Bonus Bomb- Kevin Tway 200/1 Tied 35th
Saturday Night add of Justin Rose 8/1- Tied for 8th

*** No Outright was done for the Sentry Tournament of Champions, but Vegas and Uihlein are our first two missed cut players of the year. Both went from Top 15 after day one, to absolutely imploding and missing the cut.


Head to Head Bets (Initial Write-up): Post Tournament Write-up in Bold

I am not a big proponent of laying large juice on bets, but a couple of them seem poorly priced.

Jason Day -140 over Tiger Woods (Win)
While I don’t trust Jason Day entirely because of bogey plus rate and the ever-looming injury potential, I believe in Tiger Woods 10000x less. Inconsistency will be at a premium for Tiger Woods until he finds some rhythm. Making the cut feels 50/50 for Woods.
Day Grades out 11th on my spreadsheet.
Tiger no ranking because of no trackable data.

***Injury Potential did creep in, but that will teach me for saying I don’t trust Jason Day entirely! Nonetheless, Day was our pick to beat Tiger, and in doing so, he also beat everyone in the whole tournament. 

Gary Woodland -130 over Patrick Reed (Win)

Gary Woodland may have trouble winning tournaments, but at venues he likes, he is beyond consistent. This isn’t a tournament Patrick Reed usually plays, and he arrives with no current form. Being paired with Tiger Woods will either propel the best out of him (Ryder Cup-style) or be an extra distraction for a player who can’t seem to find his game.
Gary Woodland 4th on my spreadsheet.
Patrick Reed 33rd on my spreadsheet.

***Woodland unfortunately for our outright pick, proved once again he wasn’t capable of getting the job done but did manage to squeak by Patrick Reed. Reed showed more form than he had recently and probably was propelled by playing with Tiger. Woodland had a sizable lead over Reed going into Sunday but had to hold on for dear life after blowing up early in his round. Once again though no harm was done. 

Tony Finau +105 over Brian Harman (Win)
I don’t love pairing two golfers against one another who are both top-25 options on my spreadsheet, but in this circumstance, I think it is the right thing to do. Tony Finau loves this course, and I would be shocked if we don’t get another top-25 performance from him. Brian Harman is being propelled on the spreadsheet from his recent form. Torrey Pines is not a course that fits his game, and his overload of golf may finally catch up to him here.
Tony Finau 1st on spreadsheet.
Brian Harman 23rd on spreadsheet.

***This happened to be a spot on prediction of what transpired. Finau came T6 and Harman missed the cut. It is tough betting against players with the form Harman had but when the course landscape changes so drastically from what
1. Fit their game initially, to a new place that doesn’t.
2. Is a new look for a golfer worn out with too much golf.

It usually is the right spot to fade that player. It didn’t hurt Finau was the No.1 Golfer on our spreadsheet. 

Chesson Hadley -110 over David Lingmerth (Win)
This is one of the biggest head-scratching match-ups to me. Hadley is being completely disrespected after his performance last week. A performance that still saw him make the cut and finish in 42nd place. His last five starts have yielded a third, second, fourth, 37th and 42nd place finish. Lingmerth is the poster boy for inconsistency. With a long course that doesn’t even fit his game, I am perplexed by the number.
Chesson Hadley 12th on the spreadsheet
David Lingmerth 95th on the spreadsheet

*** Once again this was a pretty spot on breakdown pre-tourney. Hadley is just a better golfer on most tracks and for one where the course fit Hadley better than Lingmerth, it seemed like a no-brainer. Hadley finished Tied for 23rd and Lingmerth missed the cut.

Year to Date Golf Betting:

Head to Head Bets (14-2+15.48 Units YTD

Outright Winners (0-3-3.2775 Units YTD
***Outright card is built per tournament. Meaning the collection of golfers are essentially a one-unit bet for myself give or take a bit.


Sentry Tournament of Champions

Jordan Spieth -104 over Dustin Johnson
1.3 Units to win 1.25 Units
(-1.30)

Marc Leishman +170 over Brooks Koepka
1 Unit to win 1.7 Units
(+1.70)

Kevin Kisner -110 over Xander Schauffele
1.1 Units to win 1 Unit
(+1.00)

No Outrights

Sony Open
Zach Johnson +110 over Russell Henley
1 Unit to win 1.1 Units
(+1.10)

Ryan Armour +110 over Jimmy Walker
1.2 Units to win 1.32 Units
(+1.32)

Chez Reavie +130 over Bill Haas
1.5 Units to win 1.95 Units
(+1.95)

Tony Finau +100 over Russell Henley
1.25 Units to win 1.25 Units
(+1.25)

Ollie Schneiderjans +110 over Patton Kizzire
1 Unit to win 1.1 Units
(-1.00)

Outright: Gary Woodland T7, Ollie T7, Chez Reavie T18, Kisner T25, Zach Johnson T14
(-.94 Unit)

Career Builder
Webb Simpson -115 over Patrick Reed
1.15 Units to win 1 Unit
(+1.00)

Charles Howell -110 over Jason Dufner
1.1 Units to win 1 Unit
(+1.00)

Peter Uihlein -110 over Bill Haas
1.1 Units to win 1 Unit
(+1.00)

Scott Piercy +120 over J.J. Spaun
1 Unit to win 1.2 Units
(+1.20)

Outright: Cauley T14, Piercy T6, Peterson 75, Palmer T20, Steele T20, Chappell T6
(-.87 Units)

Farmers Insurance Open
Day -140 over Tiger
1.96 Units to win 1.40 Units
(+1.40)

Woodland -130 over Reed
1.30 Units to win 1 Unit
(+1.00)

Finau +105 over Harman
1.20 Units to win 1.26 Units
(+1.26)

Hadley -110 over Lingmerth
1.76 Units to win 1.6 Units
(+1.60 Units)

Outrights: Finau T6, Cantlay T51, Woodland T12, Vegas MC, Uihlein MC, Hadley T23, Tway T35. Post tournament add Justin Rose T8.
(-1.4675 Units)

 

Please stay tuned for my Bankroll Management/Golf Betting Card Construction Blog

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