One and Done Selection For the AT&T Byron Nelson

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2018 AT&T Byron Nelson

Trinity Forest GC- 7,380 Yards- Par 71
Greens: Bermuda

The 2018 AT&T Byron Nelson will move from its old venue of TPC Four Seasons, into its new home of Trinity Forest. First-time courses are always tricky to break-down because of the uncertain nature of what playing style will be needed. Trinity Forest Golf Club is a 7,380 yard Par 71, which is a rather long course for being a Par 71. One would think that a little distance off the tee wouldn’t hurt, but according to players in the field, length will not be a problem for anyone. Player’s should be able to find the long, undulated fairways easily but any missed fairway will result in havoc. There is very little playable rough when you miss, and most of the grass will be high and thick. It is the type of grass that you will have to punch out of and reset. Despite the name of Trinity Forest, the course has no trees. There are bunkers all over the place, but they are less perilous than being in the thick rough.

Key Stats for the week:

Strokes Gained Approach- 25%
Good Drive Percentage- 15%
Strokes Gained Par 4- 20%
Strokes Gained Par 5- 10%
Birdie or Better Gained- 15%
Sand Saves-15%

These are rather pedestrian and straightforward stats for the week. I left out strokes gained off the tee because it seems like everyone will be in play unless they are missing fairways, which should add in good drive percentage as a key stat.

My OAD Selections for the season so far:

Sony Open
Gary Woodland T7- $193,233

Career Builder Challenge
Chesson Hadley T42- $18,983

Farmers Insurance Open
Tony Finau T6- $239,775

Waste Management Phoenix Open
Webb Simpson MC- $0

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Brandt Snedeker T20- $80,167

Genesis Open
Paul Casey T49- $17,964

The Honda Classic
Alex Noren T3- $448,800

Phil Mickelson 1st- $1,700,000

Valspar Championship
Sergio Garcia 4th- $312,000

Arnold Palmer Invitational
Rickie Fowler T14- $137,950

Corales Puntacana Championship
Emiliano Grillo T50- $7,305

WGC Dell Technologies Match Play
Bubba Watson 1st- $1,700,00

Houston Open
Luke List T24- $54,163

Jordan Spieth 3rd- $748,000

RBC Heritage
Matt Kuchar T23- $53,823

Valero Texas Open
Adam Scott MC- $0

Wells Fargo Championship
Bryson Dechambeau 4th- $369,600

The Players Championship
Justin Thomas T11- $225,500

Total $- $6,307,263

Screen Shot 2018-05-15 at 12.26.40 PM
Golfers in the field I have used already: Scott, Kuchar, Spieth, Garcia, Snedeker.

My top-five OAD picks (Any golfer I have used will be eliminated from consideration.)
Guys I would consider if I hadn’t already used them: Scott, Kuchar, Spieth.

#5. Scott Piercy

Scott Piercy makes an excellent choice for anyone who needs a shot in the dark type of a pick. Piercy, who usually wouldn’t fit the mold of a One and Done selection, will provide some enormous upside at mid-tier ownership. Piercy will be VERY popular on DraftKings and will be selected in some OAD pools, but I wouldn’t expect his OAD ownership to be all that high. Players like Leishman and Grace will take up the majority of the ownership from that range level. In his last 24 rounds compared to the field, Piercy ranks first in strokes gained approach, seventh in good drive percentage, and 10th in Par 4 scoring

#4. Charles Howell III

Howell will come into the week as one of the highest projected owned players on DraftKings. Most of Howell’s ownership percentage will come from the safety he provides, rather than the upside he possesses. This will give Howell a little less ownership in OAD contests versus that of guys like Leishman and Grace. Howell ranks top-10 compared to the field in Par 4 scoring, good drive percentage, and sand save percentage. There aren’t going to be many more spots where you will be clamoring to use Howell, and in such a weak field, this is one of the better opportunities you will get.

#3. Marc Leishman

In Leishman’s last 24 rounds compared to the field, he ranks fifth in strokes gained on Par 4 scoring, and seventh in strokes gained approach. My biggest concern when it comes to Leishman this week is the chalky ownership he will possess across the board. He is currently projected to be the highest owned player on Draftkings at over 23 percent. This percentage will most likely translate into a high OAD selection rate. If you are in a position where you need to make up ground on the field, Leishman is probably not the best choice for you. If you are looking for someone who provides a high floor and should keep you near the top of your standings, Leishman may be your guy.

#2. Branden Grace

Branden Grace loves links-style courses, and Trinity Falls appears like it will be just that. Grace has not been overly impressive this season, but he has made 10 straight worldwide cuts, which includes six top-25s. Only one of those tournaments ended up being a top-10 finish, but Grace has been as steady as they come as of late. It is another similar spot of where you won’t have many places you will be actively looking to use Grace, and this may be as good of a tournament as any. Grace will probably be one of the more popular OAD picks so I would use him more towards the top of an OAD leaderboard than I would as a chaser who needs to make up ground..

#1. Hideki Matsuyama

Hideki Matsuyama is in a rare territory this week. He is a world-class player, who is in a weak field, and NOBODY is going to want to use him. Matsuyama is the ultimate contrarian play. Since Matsuyama injured his wrist and had to withdraw at the Pheonix Open earlier this year, he has only played five tournaments. He has made three of the five cuts, experienced one MDF finish and had a missed cut last weekend at The Players Championship. So what makes Matsuyama such a great play this weekend? Despite his shaky results, Matsuyama seems to be turning his game back around. Last week at The Players, he hit 85 percent of his fairways and gained 4.248 strokes off the tee. Matsuyama struggled with his approach and around the green game, but those are two stats that have been the best part of his game all season. If you take away the 17th hole, a hole in which Matsuyama played at seven-over par through two days, he would have been at three-under par and made the cut. Sure, it is possible there might be better spots for Matsuyama later in the season, but this feels like a unique opportunity to grab a top-10 player at a non-existent percentage.

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