One and Done Selection For the Fort Worth Invitational

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2018 Fort Worth Invitational

Colonial Country Club – 7,209 Yards- Par 70
Greens: Bentgrass

The Fort Worth Invitational dons a star-studded field, yet somehow still lacks a sponsor for the event. Despite no tournament sponsorship, the Fort Worth Invitational is shaping up to be one of the more exciting contests of the year. Colonial Country Club will provide a unique look for the players this week. Narrow fairways and small greens help to neutralize the short layout of the course, which measures only 7,209 yards. Holes 3-5 are called the Horrible Horseshoe, and that is for good reason. It is one of the toughest stretches of golf on the PGA Tour, playing almost 7,000 strokes over par in the last 35 years. In comparison, the rest of the course has played nearly 800 strokes under par during that same period. Because of the compact fairways, accuracy off the tee will be vital. Once you hit the fairway, though, approach shots will only be about 150-175 yards in length on average.

Key Stats for the week:

Strokes Gained Approach- 30%
Strokes Gained Par 4- 15%
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 Yards- 10%
Good Drive Percentage- 18%
Strokes Gained Off The Tee-15%
Proximity 150-175 Yards- 12%

My OAD Selections for the season so far:

Sony Open
Gary Woodland T7- $193,233

Career Builder Challenge
Chesson Hadley T42- $18,983

Farmers Insurance Open
Tony Finau T6- $239,775

Waste Management Phoenix Open
Webb Simpson MC- $0

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Brandt Snedeker T20- $80,167

Genesis Open
Paul Casey T49- $17,964

The Honda Classic
Alex Noren T3- $448,800

Phil Mickelson 1st- $1,700,000

Valspar Championship
Sergio Garcia 4th- $312,000

Arnold Palmer Invitational
Rickie Fowler T14- $137,950

Corales Puntacana Championship
Emiliano Grillo T50- $7,305

WGC Dell Technologies Match Play
Bubba Watson 1st- $1,700,00

Houston Open
Luke List T24- $54,163

Jordan Spieth 3rd- $748,000

RBC Heritage
Matt Kuchar T23- $53,823

Valero Texas Open
Adam Scott MC- $0

Wells Fargo Championship
Bryson Dechambeau 4th- $369,600

The Players Championship
Justin Thomas T11- $225,500

AT&T Byron Nelson
Hideki Matsuyama T16- $115,500

Total $- $6,422,763

Screen Shot 2018-05-21 at 6.55.02 PM____________________________________________________________________________________________
Last week’s suggestions at the AT&T Byron Nelson
#5 Scott Piercy- T32
#4 Charles Howell- T9
#3 Marc Leishman- 2nd
#2 Branden Grace- T3
#1 Hideki Matsuyama- T16

Golfers in the field I have already used: Hadley, Simpson, Snedeker, Fowler, Grillo, Spieth, Kuchar, Scott and DeChambeau.

My top-five OAD picks-
(Any golfer I have used will be eliminated from consideration.)
Guys I would consider if I hadn’t already used them: Fowler, Grillo, Kuchar, Scott, and DeChambeau.

#5 Jason Dufner

This will be Dufner’s 10th career appearance at the Fort Worth Invitational. Dufner has made four of his last five cuts at Colonial, which includes three top-10s, two of which are runner-up finishes. In Dufner’s last 50 rounds compared to the field at short courses, he ranks second in strokes gained off the tee, 11th in strokes gained approach and 16th in Par 4 scoring between 400-450 yards. There’s definite volatility to a Jason Dufner OAD selection this week, but anyone who needs to make up ground on the field will have themselves a sneaky pick here. Dufner is projected to be under 10 percent owned on DraftKings. I’d imagine his OAD percentage will be no more than 1-3 percent.

#4 Zach Johnson

Zach Johnson is your “horse for the course” this weekend at the Fort Worth Invitational. Johnson is 12-for-12 in cuts here at Colonial and has amassed $3,510,245 in the process. Johnson is a two-time champion at the event and has five top-10 finishes. In reality, Johnson is your safest bet on this list, despite only coming in fourth in the rankings. I believe this could be your best spot to use him this season and I wouldn’t question anyone thinking about locking him in as their official OAD selection. For me, though, he will be far too popular of a pick and won’t provide as much upside as I would like. If your goal is to guarantee a payday, Johnson is your best selection on the board, but if you are looking for winning equity, I think you can find better options elsewhere.

#3 Xander Schauffele

Xander Schauffele isn’t one of the prototypical names you would expect to play well on a short course. Schauffele is perceived as a bomber, who can be quite erratic off the tee. In fact, Schauffele ranks 77th in his last 24 rounds compared to the field in good-drive percentage. However, stats sometimes don’t tell the whole story. If you look at Schauffele in his last 24 rounds at short courses that don’t require a driver off the tee, you would realize he is an entirely different player. Schauffele ranks 8th in good-drive percentage and 7th in strokes gained off the tee compared to the field. Although Schauffele is without a doubt still a “bomber,” he tends to play better when you take the driver out of his hands. Schauffele has some course experience after last year’s T48 finish and should be close to unowned in all OAD pools. Schauffele will carry some risk and is far from a guarantee to make the cut, but at his 40/1 outright price, according to Vegas, he has winning upside at virtually a non-existent selection percentage.

#2 Chez Reavie

Chez Reavie, who is looking for his first win since 2008, might be the ultimate contrarian selection at Colonial Country Club. After Chez Reavie’s back-to-back second-place finishes at the Waste Management Open and AT&T Pro-Am earlier this season, he hit a wall with five straight finishes outside of the top 50. Two weeks ago, Reavie managed to break out of his drought, finishing in a tie for 30th at the Players Championship. While this is nothing to write home about, it is a step in the right direction. Reavie’s game is suited for short courses, and a lot of his downfall came at venues that were just too long for him. Colonial Country Club plays slightly over 7,200 yards and its length should fit right into Reavie’s wheelhouse. In his last 24 rounds compared to the field on short courses, Reavie ranks first in good-drive percentage. Reavie is considered a long-shot at 80/1 odds, but I believe he has real win equity this weekend. It is entirely possible that nobody will select him in your OAD pool and as a chaser trying to catch the leaders, I would be more than okay with being on an island by myself with Chez Reavie.

#1 Adam Hadwin

Being in second-place in my 623 person OAD pool puts me in a unique spot. There is something to be said about trying to hold onto a top-five position but just like in any sport, holding onto the ball and trying to milk the clock will eventually get you caught. My pick of Adam Hadwin provides reliability but still mixes in win equity, the best of both worlds for me. In Hadwin’s last 24 rounds compared to the field, he ranks first in good-drive percentage, second in strokes gained approach and 16th in Par 4 scoring. He also is tied for the PGA Tour lead with 17 consecutive cuts made. I assume Hadwin is going to be more popular on DraftKings than he is for OAD pools. It is a stacked field, and Hadwin is still just 60/1 to win according to Vegas. It is possible that his ownership percentage may end up being more than I expected it to be, but at the end of the day, a win is a win if Hadwin can get it.

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