One and Done Selection For the FedEx St. Jude Classic

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2018 FedEx St. Jude Classic

TPC Southwind – 7,244 Yards – Par 70
Greens: Bermuda

After last week’s Memorial Tournament provided us a star-studded field, the FedEx St. Jude Classis is going to give us about the opposite end of the spectrum. It is safe to say that FedEx didn’t deliver this weekend. In all fairness, the lack of strength has more to do with the U.S. Open being next week than anything else. Most of the top names are getting ready for Shinnecock Hills, and anyone who wasn’t already qualified for the U.S. Open spent Monday in their Sectional Qualifiers. This has accounted for an even weaker field because most everyone who was lucky enough to get into the U.S. Open from the Sectional Qualifiers pulled out once they did so.

From a course perspective, TPC Southwind has a couple of interesting notes to address. It has 94 bunkers and 10 water hazards. The 10 water hazards may be the most dangerous aspect of this place. Since 2013, TPC Southwind has had more balls land in the water than any course on tour. Almost 1500 more balls have gone swimming than the next closest course, which is TPC Sawgrass. Strokes gained approach seems to be the most critical factor in placing in the top-10 and the vast majority of the approach shots will come between 150 to 200 yards.

Key Stats:

Strokes Gained Approach – 25%
Birdie or Better Gained – 20%
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 Yards – 15%
Strokes Gained Par 5 Scoring – 15%
Proximity 150-175 Yards – 15%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee – 10%

My OAD Selections for the season so far:

Sony Open
Gary Woodland T7- $193,233

Career Builder Challenge
Chesson Hadley T42- $18,983

Farmers Insurance Open
Tony Finau T6- $239,775

Waste Management Phoenix Open
Webb Simpson MC- $0

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Brandt Snedeker T20- $80,167

Genesis Open
Paul Casey T49- $17,964

The Honda Classic
Alex Noren T3- $448,800

WGC-Mexico
Phil Mickelson 1st- $1,700,000

Valspar Championship
Sergio Garcia 4th- $312,000

Arnold Palmer Invitational
Rickie Fowler T14- $137,950

Corales Puntacana Championship
Emiliano Grillo T50- $7,305

WGC Dell Technologies Match Play
Bubba Watson 1st- $1,700,00

Houston Open
Luke List T24- $54,163

Masters
Jordan Spieth 3rd- $748,000

RBC Heritage
Matt Kuchar T23- $53,823

Valero Texas Open
Adam Scott MC- $0

Wells Fargo Championship
Bryson Dechambeau 4th- $369,600

The Players Championship
Justin Thomas T11- $225,500

AT&T Byron Nelson
Hideki Matsuyama T16- $115,500

Fort Worth Invitational
Adam Hadwin T52- $16,472

The Memorial Tournament
Justin Rose T6 – $309,275

Total $ – 6,748,510

Screen Shot 2018-06-05 at 3.43.06 PM

____________________________________________________________________________________________
Last week’s suggestions at The Memorial Tournament
#5 Jason Dufner – MC
#4 Henrik Stenson – T13
#3 Tiger Woods – T23
#2 Dustin Johnson – T8
#1 Justin Rose – T6
____________________________________________________________________________________________

Golfers in the field I have already used: List, Finau, Snedeker, Mickelson,

My top-five OAD picks- (Only four”ish” suggestions this week)
(Any golfer I have used will be eliminated from consideration.)
Guys I would consider if I hadn’t already used them: List, Mickelson, Finau

#4 Kevin Chappell

Kevin Chappell comes into the week with less than ideal form but makes for an interesting One and Done contrarian selection. Hear me out here before you rush to judgment on this call. For starters, Chappell would only be recommended to those who are in need of a swing for the fence type of a pick. Chappell enters the week having missed four of his last five cuts, but I genuinely believe there are reasons to like him this week. Before Chappell’s back injury sent him in the wrong direction for the last two months, the 31-year-old American golfer was closing in on his second career PGA Tour win. Even though Chappell’s results have not adequately shown up yet, his statistical performance is starting to come back to where he was. In his last 24 rounds compared to the field, Chappell ranks third in Par-4 scoring between 450 to 500 yards, 15th in proximity between 150 to 175 yards, and top-25 in birdie or better and strokes gained off the tee. In reality, there aren’t many possible guys who are options this week. Chappell provides top-tier upside without maybe the current form you would hope to see.

#3 Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Kiradech Aphibarnrat is a surprise entrance into the FedEx St. Jude Classic field this week. Aphibarnrat needed a sponsor exemption to get himself into the field. The 28-year-old Thai golfer has graced his presence on the PGA Tour much more than some may have thought he would have this season. Despite this fact, Aphibarnrat is not necessarily the first player you would think of using in a One and Done pool, and for this reason, the 31st-ranked player in the world more often than not is left as a reserve pick than the actual selection. If you think about the nature of most One and Done pools, you would realize that many people use golfers that they shouldn’t throughout the season. Contests don’t play out this straightforward because there are many variables to consider weekly, but in reality, you shouldn’t be playing anyone outside of the top-50 in the world. If you played it this way, you probably wouldn’t be entirely successful, but it goes to show that people go just a bit too far down the rankings. I really can’t think of any other spot this season I would be wanting to play Aphibarnrat, and this may be as good of an opportunity as any. Aphibarnrat provides high upside and low ownership.

#2 Luke List, Phil Mickelson, or Tony Finau

I never advise guys I have already used. There’s a method behind the madness of a One and Done contest. If someone covering and advising on picks could freely do so, they would select Justin Thomas or Dustin Johnson every week. I could claim they were the best picks on the board, and if I hadn’t already used them, I would have done so this week. That is obviously not how these contests work, and we would have no weekly article under those pretenses, at least not one of fair judgment. That is why I always try and add players I have used already and guys I would consider if I hadn’t already done so. However, for this week, I am going to cheat on those rules, and I will explain why. The FedEx St. Jude Classic is a very weak tournament, and there aren’t enough players who I would happily recommend. I genuinely feel that the three guys mentioned above are all worthy of being potential top-five recommendations. I don’t feel comfortable endorsing any of them as my One and Done pick for the week, but if you haven’t used someone from that list, I think this week could be a great time to do so.

#1 Henrik Stenson

Henrik Stenson comes into the week with five straight top-25 finishes, which includes three top-six results. Stenson reminds me of our One and Done pick, Justin Rose, last week. When Stenson is on, he is one of the best players in the world, and I don’t know if you are going to catch the 42-year-old Sweedish golfer in a better situation all season. In his last 12 rounds compared to the field, Stenson ranks first in strokes gained approach. At some point soon, he will be heading over to Europe for a handful of weeks, which limits our number of opportunities to play him. I would rather catch him when he is in-form than wait and potentially miss out on the hot streak.

 

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and check me out on Rotoballer.com for my golf player news.

 

 

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